I have now run most of the course over the last 10 days and here's I'm my final repot. The conclusion is that no matter how hot it gets in the next 7 days, there will be lots of snow. Several of my runs were after storms so the course will be drier then the pics indicate but the ground is saturated and the snow-pack is dense.
I was particularly surprised by how icy and deep the snow was on my run to Windy Pass this morning. There was snow for two miles below Windy...and most of it will not melt by race day.
Stream crossing early in the race
So my calculations are as follows- Snow from mile 11-14.5 (hopefully there will be a dry shoulder those last couple miles). Mile 34 will have snow patches while in the ravine. Bozung hill, mile 39-40, will be snow (which I prefer- cooler and if soft enough, better more consistent footing) and then 41-43 coming off of Windy Pass will be a mess. Roughly 6-7 miles of snow. Check out the course map.
Looking down into Rock Canyon
Overall, the ground will be soft, streams are full but crossings shouldn't be much of a problem, and with that latest storm there are as many fallen trees as I can remember. PR's are doubtful. I'm still thinking that if all goes well my PR is within range. I'm in as good of shape as any previous Squaw so I think a sub-9 performance is the goal. I'll post more about the competition here in a few days. In the meantime, lets hope the course dries out a bit. I don't mind the snow, it's the mud and mush that drives me crazy.
Coming off Windy Pass the snow pack is dense and icy